Why Dems don’t understand the shift away from their health care “reform” November 22, 2009
Posted by vsap in 2008 Presidential Election, Blogroll, Financial Crisis, US Politics, Uncategorized.Tags: health care reform, public health care
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Newt Gingrich doesn’t need my help to get the message out about health care, but here it is, an excerpt from his recent email:
A Stunning 22 Point Shift Away From Government Responsibility for Health Care
Polling data released last week by Gallup show a startling shift in public opinion: President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are actually convincing the country to rethink their attitudes and move toward the right and away from government solutions in health care (the same seems to be happening on spending, taxes, and how to create jobs, but that will be a future newsletter). Gallup’s annual poll on health issues (taken every November) shows public opinion shifting against the values of the Left and in favor of the personal responsibility, limited government model which has defined America for 240 years (since the founding decade of the 1770s). Gallup reports a stunning shift of 22% of all Americans who have moved from believing government is responsible for health care to believing health care is a personal responsibility.
One Out of Every Four Americans Have Changed Their Minds on Health Care
That means nearly one out of every four Americans have changed their minds on a fundamental question of who is responsible for health care. This is one of the largest shifts of its kind in such a short period in modern history. The survey shows that even after the 2008 presidential campaign and the Obama Administration’s concerted effort to sell government health care, support for non-government responsibility is at an all time high. In fact, for the first time in the decade that Gallup has asked the question, the survey found that more Americans (50%) favor non-government responsibility than believe it is a government responsibility (47%). The high watermark for the Left’s belief in collective responsibility through government was in November 2006 when by a 69-to-28 margin Americans said health care was a government responsibility (the choice is actually worded government versus nongovernment responsibility). Thus in November 2006, partially in reaction to Republican failures and the absence of a coherent conservative message, nearly 7 out of every 10 Americans had chosen government responsibility for health care.
The Shift Away from Government Health Care was Actually Fueled By the Campaign
But November 2006 was when support for government health care peaked. The shift away from government and towards non-government responsibility was actually fueled by the presidential campaign. In the November 2008 survey Gallup found support for government responsibility had already dropped to 54% and support for non-government responsibility had risen to 41%. That meant there had been a 7% drop in support for government and a 9% increase in support for non-government responsibility in health care even during the presidential campaign – a campaign in which we were told candidate Obama was very articulate and charismatic and candidate McCain was not very effective. Yet the power of the culture seemed to be outweighing the articulateness of the candidate who was advocating the wrong position. As President, Barack Obama’s effort to articulate the case for government responsibility has seen support for government erode another 7% and support for a nongovernmental responsibility rise another 9%. At this rate, after another year of the health debate, the American people will have decisively rejected government as a system for solutions.
Why Democrats Don’t Understand the Shift
Within the Gallup data there are very important clues as to why President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid do not understand what is happening. Whereas 22% of the country has shifted from government to non-government responsibility in health care, among Democrats support for government remains strong. Democrats’ belief in government responsibility peaked at 87% in 2007. That meant there was virtually no opposition among Democrats to government-run health care. Even today, when 22% of the American people have shifted away from government, Democrats remain firmly in favor with 74% favoring government responsibility and only 23% favoring non-government responsibility (among Republicans the numbers are now reversed at 21% government and 77% non-government). So even today three out of four Democrats would reinforce what is now a declining position among the American people.
Keep the Current System or Replace It
A similar shift in public opinion is underway on the question of whether to keep the current health system or replace it. Today a vast majority (61 to 32) favor keeping the current system rather than replacing it. The margin among the two parties again reflects this schizophrenia about policies and values.While 86% of Republicans favor maintaining the current system and only 11% favor replacing it, among Democrats the results are very different. Democrats favor replacing the current system by 56 to 35.
Losing Independents, Losing the Country, Losing the Next Election
What these data show is that the Obama Administration and the congressional Democrats are losing the argument with independents, eroding support among their own party and consolidating Republicans into a firmly anti-government position. This trend suggests that another year of debate over the Left’s values, plans and policies will consolidate the center-right majority and lead to a crushing defeat for the Democratic Congress. Two more years of debate on this pattern would make President Obama a one-term President. It will be interesting to see if anyone in the White House reads Gallup data. It will be interesting to see if anyone in the White House listens to the American people.
Americans are probably going to become even more critical of government and supportive of nongovernmental solutions
As the country learns more about government incompetence as a delivery system (read Jim Frogue’s Stop Paying the Crooks) , the H1N1 flu vaccine fiasco and other failures, people will continue to move away from reliance on government.
As Americans think through the economic crisis (10.2% unemployment and growing), the Chinese ownership of $2 trillion in United States debt, the rising state government deficit (going up from $112 billion in 2009 to $134 billion in 2010), and the reactionary unwillingness to reform many of the public employee unions, they will become even more skeptical of turning problems over to government.
The final result of the debates President Obama is sparking may be a nation which polarizes 75 to 25 in favor of nongovernmental responsibility, turning to personal, corporate, nonprofit or faith-based institutions instead of government for solutions.
This would be a grand irony. But the Gallup data show an underlying pattern that should hearten conservatives and demoralize liberals.
Couldn’t say it better myself. Thanks Newt!
When Newt is right, give him the kudos August 31, 2009
Posted by vsap in 2008 Presidential Election, Blogroll, Financial Crisis, US Politics, Uncategorized.Tags: Democrats, health care reform, Newt Gingrich, public health care
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Newt Gingrich sent this along the other day. He doesn’t need my blog to help, but it is well-said. Here it is:
Facta, non verba.
For those of you who have forgotten your Latin, it means “deeds, not words.”
There’s been a lot of overheated rhetoric about health care reform, but this saying is one that all Americans should return to when considering plans for a government-dominated health system.
In other words, we should judge government, not by its words, but by its deeds.
With this simple principle in mind, what follows are three examples why government can’t – and shouldn’t – run our health care system (at least not any health care system you or I would want to be dependent on).
Every family knows about making a budget and living within its means. Government, to put it bluntly, does not.
What if your husband had come home last Friday night and announced that he had racked up almost 30 percent more debt on the family credit card – including the mortgage and car loans – than he had told you about just a month ago?
Would you trust him to go out and start spending money to remodel the kitchen? And do you think he could get a loan to do it?
But that’s exactly what the Obama Administration did with their weekend news dump. They announced late Friday that the amount of money they don’t have but are nonetheless planning on spending over the next ten years isn’t the astonishing $7 trillion they estimated in May but is instead an astounding $9 trillion.
Add this to the fact that, after the administration sold its health care reform proposal on the grounds that it will reduce costs to the Treasury, the independent Congressional Budget Office determined that the House plan will actually cost an astounding $1 trillion-$1.5 trillion in the next ten years, which will be added directly to the federal debt. The director of the CBO testified before Congress last month that “[i]n the legislation that has been reported we do not see the sort of fundamental changes that would be necessary to reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount. And on the contrary, the legislation significantly expands the federal responsibility for health care costs.”
Which do you have more faith in, the government’s happy talk of “bending the cost curve” or its record of out-of-control spending?
Deeds, not words.
As the inimitable Andy McCarthy of National Review put it, “Compared to the infinite complexity of healthcare and health-insurance, cash-for-clunkers is kindergarten stuff. You trade in your old car for a new one that gets (slightly) better mileage and the government gives you money – between $3,500 and $4,500. How hard is that?”
Too hard for government bureaucrats, it turns out.
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood has boasted that the cash-for-clunkers program provided “a lifeline to the automobile industry, jump starting a major sector of the economy and putting people back to work.”
But look at the deeds, not the words.
Last week, cash-for-clunkers ended in a bureaucratic morass of red tape, failed promises and unanticipated costs.
Only a government bureaucracy could mess up a program designed to give away free money.
The government wizards who set up cash-for-clunkers initially budgeted to sell 250,000 cars in three months.
The program sold that many in four days.
And because the central planners who think they can provide government “competition” to the private health insurance market failed to accurately estimate how many government workers it would take to administer cash-for-clunkers, they had to take employees from the FAA – air traffic controllers, no less – to help manage the demand.
And what about the car dealerships the program was supposed to help in the first place? Even though the rebates were supposed to be paid within 10 days, only 7 percent of federal promises under cash-for-clunkers have been paid so far, leaving dealers with millions of dollars in unfunded government promises.
But there’s more to the cautionary tale of cash-for-clunkers than just bureaucratic incompetence.
This is a case study in what happens when politicians get involved in the marketplace.
Despite all the rhetoric of jump starting the auto industry, politicians’ priorities are to give free goodies to their constituents. So as far as they’re concerned, cash-for-clunkers has been a resounding success.
Forget the fact that they’re spending money they don’t have, or that car dealerships are left holding millions of dollars in empty government promises. They’re not concerned with the long-term, just the next election.
So tell us again why should we think bureaucrats and politicians will perform any better with our health care?
There’s been a lot of worrying about the inevitability of government rationing health care under the Democratic reform bills in Congress.
Economists have known about this inevitability for a long time. Well, Americans can stop worrying. Government is rationing care already – and doing it in a particularly stupid way.
Studies have shown that early use of home health care after hospitalization – allowing patients to go home and be visited by a nurse to manage their care – saves Medicare billions of dollars.
So here is a case where an innovative government program actually saves the government money. Home health care is both more compassionate and more efficient. It reduces the likelihood a patient will be readmitted to a hospital by allowing her to heal in a more familiar setting.
So naturally bureaucrats at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services cut $34 billion from this compassionate, efficient program last week.
And if the House health care reform bill becomes law, an additional $56.8 billion will be cut from the program – an amount equal to almost the entire federal budget for home health care services in 2007.
What makes rationing care to the homebound all the more immoral is the fact that there is a much bigger pot of savings available to Washington if it only had the political will to look.
As a new book by the Center for Health Transformation’s Jim Frogue details, criminals rip off the taxpayers to the tune of $80 billion to $120 billion each year in the current Medicare and Medicaid programs.
We’re not talking about inadvertent bill errors but outright fraud. Government health programs are currently paying men maternity benefits, giving taxpayer dollars to pizza parlors that are supposed to be HIV transfusion centers, and even paying dead patients federal health care benefits.
If ever there was a reason not to turn our entire health care system over to government it is this: Government can’t run the health care programs it already has. It would rather ration compassionate, effective programs than do the hard work of rooting out and punishing the crooks who are stealing our taxpayer dollars.
Americans have already heard a lot of rhetoric about health care reform, and we can expect to hear a lot more.
But as Ronald Reagan used to say, facts are stubborn things. And the facts of government’s track record in managing our money and delivering on its promises speak louder than any televised presidential speech or stage-managed town hall ever could.
So as the summer winds down and the debate rages on, let this be our mantra:
Facta, non verba.
Make a bumper sticker out of it.
Put it on a tee-shirt and wear it to a town hall.
And when someone asked you what it means, tell them that before we hand over more of our lives to government, we should consider how they’ve treated us so far.
Can I get an amen for Newt? Amen!